Memphis vs Arkansas State 9/8/2012

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Arkansas State is a heavy favorite winning 88% of simulations over Memphis. Ryan Aplin is averaging 338 passing yards and 2.6 TDs per simulation and Frankie Jackson is projected for 50 rushing yards and a 46% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 12% of simulations where Memphis wins, Jacob Karam averages 2.15 TD passes vs 0.88 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.06 TDs to 1.27 interceptions. Jerrell Rhodes averages 63 rushing yards and 0.81 rushing TDs when Memphis wins and 48 yards and 0.38 TDs in losses. Arkansas State has a 44% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 92% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARKST -22.5

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